Research

Working Papers:

Abstract
    • I use administrative data on the ownership, management, and taxes for the universe of all firms in Ecuador to study the implications of family-management for aggregate productivity. A novel finding I document is that family-managed firms grow half as quickly as externally-managed firms. This growth differential implies that family-managed firms account for only 40% of employment, despite being the 80% of firms. I construct a general equilibrium model of firm dynamics that is consistent with these facts. Entrepreneurs choose whether to utilize family members as managers or hire external managers. External managers allow firms to scale up production, but their efficiency is affected due to contractual frictions. Improving the efficiency of external managers could increase output on the order of 6%, as it leads more firms to abandon family-management and consequently enjoy rapid growth.

[new version coming soon]

Abstract
    • This paper studies the long-run intergenerational effects of concertaje, a widespread forced labor system in the Americas from the Spanish colonial era that coerced indigenous workers in rural estates (haciendas) after causing them to become indebted. We collected and digitized the universe of historical individual-level tax records (1800) in what is today Ecuador and connected them to likely descendants using the universe of contemporary (2010s) tax returns and census registries via surnames. We find that descendants from concertaje earn 16 percent less formal labor income vis-à-vis descendants from uncoerced indigenous workers. Because of the distortions created by the institution, descendants from concertaje are less educated, more likely to work in agriculture and the informal sector, and less prone to migrate. However, the effects of concertaje on immigrants are milder, suggesting migration acted as a mitigation channel.

[new version! (submitted)]

Abstract
    • We study the drivers and real effects of bank credit supply shocks during a non-financial recession combining a matched bank–firm credit registry, confidential bank-level responses to the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, and matched employer–employee records in Mexico. Risk tolerance emerges as the dominant driver of credit supply, rather than traditional bank fundamentals. Changes in risk tolerance reduce credit growth among continuing borrowers and credit creation to new debtors, whereas worsening portfolio quality raises the probability of terminating bank–firm relationships. A one-standard-deviation negative credit supply shock lowers firms’ annual formal employment growth by 1 percentage point and raises firm exit probability by 0.15 percentage points, with effects concentrated among small, young, and financially constrained firms. Aggregate employment losses from credit supply shocks are comparable to those documented for financial recessions. Negative shocks reshape workforce composition, raising separations on permanent contracts and lowering hiring on temporary ones.

[new version!]

  • Is There a Cyclical Job Ladder in Middle-Income Countries? Evidence from 4.2 Billion Formal-Sector Jobs
Abstract
    • We use a monthly administrative matched employer-employee dataset of 4.2 billion observations spanning 20 years (2005–2024) to study the cyclicality of the job ladder in Mexico, a large middle-income country. We decompose net employment flows into poaching and nonemployment channels for firms at different rungs of the wage ladder and relate these flows to the business cycle. On average, recessions have a cleansing effect: low-wage firms experience disproportionately larger employment declines, driven primarily by the nonemployment channel, while the poaching channel shows a partial, quantitatively minor collapse of the wage ladder consistent with the sullying effect. These average effects mask striking heterogeneity across recession types: the Global Financial Crisis was a pervasive sullying episode, while the COVID-19 recession was a pervasive cleansing episode through the nonemployment channel. The poaching channel shows a sullying pattern in both recessions, suggesting that the partial collapse of the wage ladder through poaching is a robust feature of recessions regardless of their nature, while the nonemployment channel determines the overall character of the recession.
Abstract
    • In this paper, I digitize economic census data to study unconditional convergence in manufacturing labor productivity across Mexican states from 1988 to 2018. I docu­ment its existence in three-­digit industries at a rate of convergence of 1.22% per year. However, this result does not hold at the aggregate level: I find no unconditional con­vergence in manufacturing-­wide labor productivity across states. Shift­-sharing analysis reveals that the primary reason is the lack of labor reallocation towards more produc­tive industries and the underperformance of some of the largest ones. Unconditional convergence at all levels only occurred during 1988­-1998. Afterward, the convergence process broke down and was only observed at disaggregated levels. I provide evidence that one possible cause of this breakdown is the so-­called “China shock”. Additionally, I show that the convergence process, when it happened, tended to exhibit a catching­-down feature, where past leaders have seen their labor productivity decline.

[new version!]

Book Chapters:

Research in progress:

  • The Banking Channel of Social Transfers: Entry, Centralization, and Private Crowding Out (with Gonzalo Ares de Parga-Regalado) [draft coming soon]
  • From Indenture to Aversion: Debt Peonage and Long-Run Credit Demand (with Guillermo Woo-Mora) [draft coming soon]
  • Inflation Experience, Expectations and Real Outcomes (with José Casco) [draft coming soon]
 
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