Research

Working Papers:

Abstract
    • I use administrative data on the ownership, management, and taxes for the universe of all firms in Ecuador to study the implications of family-management for aggregate productivity. A novel finding I document is that family-managed firms grow half as quickly as externally-managed firms. This growth differential implies that family-managed firms account for only 40% of employment, despite being the 80% of firms. I construct a general equilibrium model of firm dynamics that is consistent with these facts. Entrepreneurs choose whether to utilize family members as managers or hire external managers. External managers allow firms to scale up production, but their efficiency is affected due to contractual frictions. Improving the efficiency of external managers could increase output on the order of 6%, as it leads more firms to abandon family-management and consequently enjoy rapid growth.

[new version coming soon]

Abstract
    • This paper studies the long-run intergenerational effects of concertaje, a widespread forced labor system in the Americas from the Spanish colonial era that coerced indigenous workers in rural estates (haciendas) after causing them to become indebted. We collected and digitized the universe of historical individual-level tax records (1800) in what is today Ecuador and connected them to likely descendants using the universe of contemporary (2010s) tax returns and census registries via surnames. We find that descendants from concertaje earn 16 percent less formal labor income vis-à-vis descendants from uncoerced indigenous workers. Because of the distortions created by the institution, descendants from concertaje are less educated, more likely to work in agriculture and the informal sector, and less prone to migrate. However, the effects of concertaje on immigrants are milder, suggesting migration acted as a mitigation channel.

[new version!]

Abstract
    • We study the drivers and real effects of credit supply shocks during a major non-financial recession, the COVID-19 crisis. Using data on the universe of bank loans in Mexico, we isolate the supply-driven component of credit variations. Credit supply conditions deteriorated in this period, drive by banks’ heightened risk aversion. Using matched employer-employee records, we find that negative credit supply shocks reduced firms’ employment and increased their exit probability. These effects are larger among financially constrained firms and workers with lower separation costs. In the aggregate, negative credit shocks account for one-third of the total employment decline for small firms.

[new version!]

Abstract
    • In this paper, I digitize economic census data to study unconditional convergence in manufacturing labor productivity across Mexican states from 1988 to 2018. I docu­ment its existence in three-­digit industries at a rate of convergence of 1.22% per year. However, this result does not hold at the aggregate level: I find no unconditional con­vergence in manufacturing-­wide labor productivity across states. Shift­-sharing analysis reveals that the primary reason is the lack of labor reallocation towards more produc­tive industries and the underperformance of some of the largest ones. Unconditional convergence at all levels only occurred during 1988­-1998. Afterward, the convergence process broke down and was only observed at disaggregated levels. I provide evidence that one possible cause of this breakdown is the so-­called “China shock”. Additionally, I show that the convergence process, when it happened, tended to exhibit a catching­-down feature, where past leaders have seen their labor productivity decline.

[new version!]

Book Chapters:

Research in progress:

  • Revisiting Income Dynamics in Mexico (with Victor Delgado-Barrera and Rodolfo Oviedo) [draft coming soon]
 
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